Opinion – RE: Resolution of the political problem and crisis in Uganda

OVERVIEW

Two recent incidents stand out in Uganda:

1. Revelations through a letter written by General David Sejusa, a.k.a. Tinyefunza – coordinator of the country’s intelligence services, that there was threat of assassinations on top military and government officials opposed to the President secret plan of having his son, Brig. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, succeed him.
2. Secondly; a brutal closure of two independent media houses for over 10 days.

Although these two incidents were related since the closure of media houses was allegedly over the publication of the letter referred above; they also stood out singly in regard to the level to which the Ugandan government has sunk and the threats that the country is facing as a result of this and other factors.

As a whole the two incidents express a steady slide into a state of chaos in the country, a state which if unchecked could see the country plummet into a fresh cycle of not just political chaos but possibly a new entrant; ethnic based chaos.

There is no doubt that President Yoweri Museveni (heading to 30 years in power at the end of his current elected term) is a man rapidly losing grip of power. There is also no doubt that recent developments in Uganda point out that the biggest opposition to Gen. Museveni’s hold onto power emanates not from without but from within his own ruling party. Some people refer to this as fire in the bedroom.

The level to which the regime has fragmented is beyond recuperation. This disintegration was captured in the quick-response shake up in the army and government that Museveni undertook after revelations of suspected assassination plots.

Although changes in government may be significant, the import of these changes however must be seen on changes carried out in the army. Nearly all the officers who were promoted and assigned to new and higher offices (except for General Wamala) are those who are supporters of the President’s son, Brig. Kainerugaba, and previously served under the elite force that the president’s son now commands.

These changes therefore left a bitter taste in those who may have harboured ambitions of succeeding President Museveni such as Prime Minister, Amama Mbabazi. It was also a brutal affirmation of the claims that Gen. Sejusa had made in his letter. The shake-up appeared to be a move to strengthen the grip of the son of President Museveni on the army.

This development has shattered the threads that hitherto held together Museveni’s government. His traditional support base of Western Uganda is therefore segment and wallowing in fear and rumours. As a result Museveni’s strength has been dealt a deadly blow.

KEY CONCERN

What must be the issue of major concern to any friends of Uganda therefore is not whether Museveni is going to fall; it’s what will happen when Museveni falls.

In the last few years the sectarian regime that Museveni has led in Uganda has bred deep anger within the population. That anger is not simply directed towards Museveni as a person but an entire region believed to be his home area (Western Uganda).

The ruthless robbery of national coffers including donor funds meant for areas that have suffered severe marginalization by government and as a result of war; the deliberate preference for people of one region in access to public employment opportunities; the unbalanced representation in key positions in the army, government, judiciary, public corporations and commissions; skewed methods of promotions in government bodies and in selection of beneficiaries of government scholarships; unbalanced development of infrastructure; etc has helped fan flames of anger. This resentment is festering and threatens to be a major factor in advent of a Museveni fall.

If unchecked what will befall Uganda at the fall of Yoweri Museveni will make the 1994 Rwanda genocide a Sunday school party.

It’s crucial and extremely urgent that the International community and regional bodies help Uganda mitigate possible degeneration into a bloody change. Means must be sought in a coalesced approach bringing together all players in the Ugandan nation; the civil society, religious groups, government, politicians, rebel groupings, etc in searching for a way out for the country.

Although many will dismiss this as alarmist, the situation on the ground is bleak. Alarm bells on a possible bloody conflict are ringing. The level of army desertions has reached unprecedented levels; it’s estimated that 1000 army men dessert the Ugandan army annually. Detailed research into this however shows that this number is understated.

I believe that this grave, costly and almost chronic crisis in Uganda can be overcome and transcended. Although there is a covert attempt by many driven by despondency, to seek a military solution to the crisis, we aver that lessons of our history show that a pure military solution alone cannot be sufficient to sort out Uganda’s problems. This is because the country has gotten entrapped within a spiral of crises that cut across the country’s spectrum and envelop its neighbours as well.

Uganda is a potential asset to its people and those of the countries that neighbour it. However if unchecked it will continue to be a liability to all. The country’s involvement in Congo, Rwanda and to some extent Sudan, attests to this point. A solution lies in unlocking the developmental potential of Uganda through accurate prognosis of its problems and crisis. This is why we believe that a crucial and urgent coalesced approach in seeking a solution is imperative.

Over its past history of existence and since its decolonization at independence, many governance formulae – democratic, military or their mix and corresponding constitutional systems have been experimented in the running of Ugandan affairs.

However several deficiencies in these endeavours have been experienced; many have been incongruent to the realities of Uganda, because there has been a lack of the deeper appreciation of the problems and crisis which face the country. These problems are not only contemporary but are historical and political in origin and, political and structural by nature. Their costly unfolding has unfortunately affixed the gaze of all, much more to the prominent power players who are active in the country rather than the context of their being and activities.

Yet the real issue at hand is not only “who” is responsible for compounding the county’s problems and crisis but “what” the problem is and the crisis it spawns or generates in the country and its neighbours.

Indeed there is no need for instance to run down the Officers of the Uganda Army despite the manifested ill behaviour of many of them. Ordinary women and men in the army happen to be largely instruments of Policies and Command of Officers and Leaderships of the Army.

It must be noted that, first Uganda is a riparian land of the Nile River and part of the Great Lakes Region before it is an East Africa Country despite its common colonial history and economic interconnections. This therefore makes peace in Uganda not crucial just to Uganda but to a larger region.

The Nile river valley countries are of specific character in terms of their strategic nature, state formations, and interconnected geopolitical and ecological resource systems. The resolution of the outstanding problems of Uganda and the political crisis it intermittently but continuously generates is therefore possible with the support of her entire cluster of peoples and communities, and crucially through an important contribution and understanding of its regional neighbours. And in addition support from the international community is imperative.

The search to a correct solution to the Ugandan problem has been long and complex. This has been to a large extent due to the fact that the powers in the country have in vain, always resorted to the use of armed repression, conflagration and war in their attempts to enforce their hegemonic power plans over Uganda in total disregard of diversities and multiplicities in the country. These efforts have not only failed, but are further compounding the situation in the country which has often spilt over to her neighbours. The current threat of this spiraling degeneration into chaos stems out of these projects.

WAY FORWARD

Principally, it is imperative to mould an all inclusive political settlement that is pegged largely on the interest and support of the peoples and communities in the country many of which hitherto have been excluded from full participation in the exercise of their country’s political power.

I feel that this approach could borrow a leaf from the 1961/62 Lancaster Conference through which the country worked out its transition to political independence. This process is imperative to the resolution our political problems of Uganda and would help usher in a new beginning for Uganda. 

The contemporary times and its dynamics call for a new political settlement and a national democratic transition  (like that which happened in South Africa- i.e. from Apartheid to the new democratic South Africa) for Uganda.

I believe this is the only credible way the gun can be taken out of Uganda’s politics and through which a new political consensus can be evolved that can return Uganda to the condition of an asset country which is at peace within itself and all its neighbours. It’s also the only credible way we believe Uganda can be saved from degenerating into another cycle of bloodletting and possibly to a much larger scale than ever witnessed before.

This approach (a national and democratic political resolution Uganda’s recurrent problems) calls, among other things, the resolution of key and accumulated outstanding issues including:

• The Power relations question. Establishment of Democracy and Rule of Law so absent in Uganda today.
• Viable programs to foster and institute sustainable peace.
• The question on the Army and Security systems.
• The National Resources, Land and Environmental questions especially regarding the equitable sharing of these resources irrespective of which region or tribe leadership originates from.
• Questions of partnerships with Foreign and International capital in National Development.
• Questions on wealth creation, distribution and sharing.
• The Humanitarian and Welfare Questions.
• The foreign relations question.
• The Question of Reparations and Compensation to the victims and Reconstruction of war destroyed areas.
• The Justice and National Reconciliation questions.
• Corruption and its ills

Finding viable answers to these issues will be an example that will find significant positive echo throughout the length and breathe of the riparian lands of the Nile River, the Great Lakes Region and the Horn of Africa.

In making this path possible, World Powers that hold leverage over the political power circles in Uganda and its President should work in tandem with the hitherto politically marginalized and excluded forces that are representatives of the peoples and communities in the country and all other interested groups that have hitherto been excluded from real political participation in the politics of the country. It is only through this that a way can be paved out of the current threateningly explosive crisis in Uganda.

I strongly believe that to avert a deeper and bloody conflict and war, it will be imperative to make Yoweri Museveni into a Frederick de Klerk of Uganda; to mould him into a personage and political element with whom to generate the necessary democratic Uganda. All who support the rise of a replicable example of peaceful and transformative change and the overall dynamic development in the Nile River valley lands, the Great Lakes Region and the Horn of Africa countries need in this regard to lend necessary support to the people of Uganda in the long odyssey for democratic renewal of the country and entire region.

This support is not only requisite, but critical in the realization of the common democratic and developmental objectives in Uganda and the pivotal region of Africa.

A new appreciation, creative and imaginative adaption of the viable examples and subsequent democratic experiences of Northern Ireland and South Africa may help to pave the way out of and forward from the political imbroglio of Uganda and to a certain extent the larger Nile River valley countries, the Great Lakes Region countries, the Horn of Africa and indeed Africa itself.

As a Ugandan, I feel that it’s urgent that moves be made to help mitigate a disaster in Uganda, and explosive and violent disaster that could have far reaching effects on the entire region. – By Brigadier Peter Okuja

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