Tanzania’s Most Peaceful Election: Why Opposition Got Flabbergasted?
By John Njoroge – The ruling party and President John Pombe Magufuli are both leading by far, trailing the weak opposition in Tanzania.
As usual opposition parties, activists and western propaganda machination, all over, will resort to one simple fallacy; whether the election was free and fair.
Let me address that first before I share what I believe to be the reasons for weaker opposition this time around in Tanzania.
The term free and fair has no one meaning in electoral governance across the world; countries abhor diverse electoral systems and so is how they manage their elections.
The fact that all political parties took party in campaigns nationwide and said all what they could except where some of them had to be sanctioned by the National Election Commission for ethical misconducts, have their own observers/agents in the voting and tallying rooms, means the necessary parameters were met.
Additionally, reports from Tanzania reveals how masses of voters turned out to vote in a peaceful manner except in some highly contested streets in the Spice Island of Zanzibar.
Media reports from Tanzania and other international outlets rate the election to be the most peaceful one in the recent times at least gauging by the voting day, although some Embassies like the US seemed to have their own candidates.
The US embassy looks frustrated to see a peaceful election in Tanzania, at least by what their New Ambassador in Dar writes every now and then on social media.
Elections in Tanzania and elsewhere are known to be marred by huge voter ques heavily gunned policy officers and in most cases voting day tend to record use of tear gas and, few times, the use of live arms. This time that was not the case. The opposition complains and will always complain but doing a bit of political science-based analysis, one would not be surprised to see how Magufuli massively wins this election.
Early results show the incumbent President Magufuli who is known for strong focus on anti-corruption crusade, efficient public service and pro-people mega projects, is trailing the opposition by far (over 85 percent) as the governing party also retains most of the constituencies it lost in 2010 and 2015.
If the US embassy and their allies are not aware, this election was not about the processes, the people had their will. Magufulis strong socio-economic performance in the last five years is a shining-glory for the CCM and for Tanzanians.
Why the Opposition Lost
1. Weak Opposition
Unlike in 2015 where the opposition united under the banner of one presidential candidate and political parties leaving to each other constituencies, this time around about 14 political parties went out individually trying to oust Magufuli.
Such a disunited opposition, you don’t need to find a Professor of political science to do a report for you to see how the opposition put itself on the edge of losing the election.
2. Leading Opposition Candidates Who Turned Weak
The most leading opposition parties, CHADEMA and ACT-Wazalendo, fielded two prominent politicians, Advocate Tundu Lissu and former Foreign Minister Ben Membe respectively.
Tundu Lissu, analysts argue, is an outspoken human rights activist but failed to argue his case prominently to common Tanzanians who see Magufuli as their saviour and warrior.
“Lissu’s main strategy was to disprove what Magufuli did; challenging his mega projects and the level of poverty in the country without himself unleashing a credible alternative policy if elected,” says Konrad Adlang from the Southern African Institute of Democracy and Good Governance.
On the other hand, Mr. Membe who was expected to bring to the opposition his massive experience in politics, security and international affairs to boost the campaign, reports indicate he could not attend his own campaign rallies in many parts of the country.
3. Ideology vs Development
The opposition’s ideology on development seem controversial. In their fierce attack against what Magufuli had done in the past five years they challenged his focus on infrastructure.
The opposition’s ideology that said they would focus on people’s development was not well defended on how a country can attain pro people development without investing in such enablers such as roads and bridges!
4. Controversial Policies
Some opposition parties in Tanzania had very controversial policies to be able to have massive support from the people.
One opposition candidate, Hashim Rungwe, for instance, pledged to provide cooked rice with beans to all Tanzanians if elected! How do you win a decisive election wish simple policies like that!
Mr. Tundu Lissu on his part defended controversial homosexual relationships and so forth.
Political scientists argue, these were petty alternative policies to oust Magufuli who enjoys a very strong record in delivering his promises. This brings us to Magufuli’s own strength.
5. Magufuli’s Strong Record
I always argue, every time, when I do a purview of Tanzania, that any analysis on the massive failures of the opposition in Tanzania, this time and before election, must be well pillared on an interplay of analysis touching upon weaknesses within the opposition itself on one hand and the strengths of Magufuli himself.
Known across Africa for his strong and at times controversial stance, Dr. John Pombe Magufuli by all measures is not an easy candidate to tear off.
He came into power in November 2015 and unleashed a unique leadership style christened as _”Magufulification”_.
He pursued the corrupt officials in the government, dismissed top level officials for embezzlement, reshuffled his cabinet whenever he discovered inefficient Ministers and did very well in socioeconomics.
He revamped the national airliner, and spent own funds, no loans like in Kenya, to fund Africa’s largest railway project, the Standard Gauge Railway; from Dar es Salaam to the country’s Capital Dodoma.
He pursued other high-level infrastructural projects including the $2.9 billion Africa’s fourth largest hydropower project in the Stieglers Gorge in Selous.
He offered free education for all students from primary and secondary schools and increased loans to higher learning students.
Facts are facts, it is tough to beat Magufuli the delivery minded African President, the Tanzanian opposition should therefore refrain from luring and lying to the international community on petty allegations of misconducts in the just ended election.
Flaws and minor irregularities cannot be avoided in elections; the process is people manned and some delays may occur, voters may delay, papers may delay, and this happens even in the US.
The Heritage Foundation, a US based not for profit organization always puts on record such irregularities common in US elections, see: https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud.
In the forthcoming November elections in the US, President Trump himself is already worried of possible frauds in the electoral processes.
Conclusively, minor irregularities are common in most elections, political parties must base on critical and substantive issues before they complain. The election in Tanzania, is such an example where the opposition must go back to their drawing board, reorganize and try their luck in the forthcoming opportunities, this one was open and clear, they saw their own seeds of defeat.
*The author is a Kenyan political analyst based in Sandton, South, Africa, but now on a 2 years fellowship at Umaine, USA.
